First Round · 2020-21
6 games · Denver Nuggets advanced
Every game
Game 1May 22
POR 123@
DEN 10935·23·38·27 / 30·31·25·2339%Game 2May 24POR 109@DEN 12825·36·26·22 / 31·42·28·2757%Game 3May 27DEN 120@POR 11539·25·20·36 / 30·29·20·3638%Game 4May 29DEN 95@POR 11524·23·19·29 / 32·25·36·2260%Game 5Jun 1POR 140@DEN 1472OT25·37·32·27 / 38·27·27·2959%Game 6Jun 3DEN 126@POR 11529·32·37·28 / 33·35·33·1439%
POR 123@DEN 10935·23·38·27 / 30·31·25·2339%Game 2May 24POR 109@DEN 12825·36·26·22 / 31·42·28·2757%Game 3May 27DEN 120@POR 11539·25·20·36 / 30·29·20·3638%Game 4May 29DEN 95@POR 11524·23·19·29 / 32·25·36·2260%Game 5Jun 1POR 140@DEN 1472OT25·37·32·27 / 38·27·27·2959%Game 6Jun 3DEN 126@POR 11529·32·37·28 / 33·35·33·1439%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
48.6%
Brier over the series
0.2743
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.