First Round · 2020-21
5 games · Utah Jazz advanced
Every game
Game 1May 23
MEM 112@
UTAH 10917·32·34·29 / 24·19·31·3523%Game 2May 26MEM 129@UTAH 14127·27·43·32 / 36·38·29·3872%Game 3May 29UTAH 121@MEM 11134·28·34·25 / 22·29·34·2651%Game 4May 31UTAH 120@MEM 11334·25·41·20 / 31·23·33·2653%Game 5Jun 2MEM 110@UTAH 12627·24·25·34 / 47·28·31·2076%
MEM 112@UTAH 10917·32·34·29 / 24·19·31·3523%Game 2May 26MEM 129@UTAH 14127·27·43·32 / 36·38·29·3872%Game 3May 29UTAH 121@MEM 11134·28·34·25 / 22·29·34·2651%Game 4May 31UTAH 120@MEM 11334·25·41·20 / 31·23·33·2653%Game 5Jun 2MEM 110@UTAH 12627·24·25·34 / 47·28·31·2076%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
55.2%
Brier over the series
0.2360
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.