First Round · 2021-22
6 games · Memphis Grizzlies advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
MIN 130@
MEM 11741·24·32·33 / 33·29·30·2529%Game 2Apr 19MIN 96@MEM 12432·17·28·19 / 33·27·36·2866%Game 3Apr 21MEM 104@MIN 9521·23·23·37 / 39·12·32·1249%Game 4Apr 23MEM 118@MIN 11928·28·31·31 / 33·27·33·2649%Game 5Apr 26MIN 109@MEM 11131·24·30·24 / 28·25·21·3769%Game 6Apr 29MEM 114@MIN 10628·21·25·40 / 29·23·32·2250%
MIN 130@MEM 11741·24·32·33 / 33·29·30·2529%Game 2Apr 19MIN 96@MEM 12432·17·28·19 / 33·27·36·2866%Game 3Apr 21MEM 104@MIN 9521·23·23·37 / 39·12·32·1249%Game 4Apr 23MEM 118@MIN 11928·28·31·31 / 33·27·33·2649%Game 5Apr 26MIN 109@MEM 11131·24·30·24 / 28·25·21·3769%Game 6Apr 29MEM 114@MIN 10628·21·25·40 / 29·23·32·2250%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
52.0%
Brier over the series
0.2477
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.