First Round · 2021-22
4 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 17
BKN 114@
BOS 11528·33·24·29 / 29·32·35·1980%Game 2Apr 20BKN 107@BOS 11433·32·25·17 / 24·31·30·2980%Game 3Apr 23BOS 109@BKN 10330·23·28·28 / 25·25·22·3161%Game 4Apr 25BOS 116@BKN 11230·28·32·26 / 26·24·28·3462%
BKN 114@BOS 11528·33·24·29 / 29·32·35·1980%Game 2Apr 20BKN 107@BOS 11433·32·25·17 / 24·31·30·2980%Game 3Apr 23BOS 109@BKN 10330·23·28·28 / 25·25·22·3161%Game 4Apr 25BOS 116@BKN 11230·28·32·26 / 26·24·28·3462%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
70.8%
Brier over the series
0.0940
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.