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Hardwood
2021-22 season

First Round · 2021-22

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers

4

final
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors

2

6 games · Philadelphia 76ers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 16Toronto RaptorsTOR 111@Philadelphia 76ersPHI 13127·24·37·23 / 35·34·38·2461%Game 2Apr 18Toronto RaptorsTOR 97@Philadelphia 76ersPHI 11233·19·19·26 / 32·35·28·1765%Game 3Apr 20Philadelphia 76ersPHI 104@Toronto RaptorsTOR 101OT19·27·28·21 / 29·27·19·2047%Game 4Apr 23Philadelphia 76ersPHI 102@Toronto RaptorsTOR 11024·25·28·25 / 24·30·26·3051%Game 5Apr 25Toronto RaptorsTOR 103@Philadelphia 76ersPHI 8829·25·21·28 / 27·14·25·2232%Game 6Apr 28Philadelphia 76ersPHI 132@Toronto RaptorsTOR 9734·28·37·33 / 29·32·17·1941%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

49.7%

Brier over the series

0.2660

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works