Conference Semifinals · 2021-22
7 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced
Every game
Game 1May 2
DAL 114@
PHX 12125·31·23·35 / 35·34·27·2563%Game 2May 4DAL 109@PHX 12928·32·23·26 / 32·26·31·4065%Game 3May 6PHX 94@DAL 10320·24·23·27 / 29·22·31·2154%Game 4May 8PHX 101@DAL 11125·31·22·23 / 37·31·19·2456%Game 5May 10DAL 80@PHX 11026·20·14·20 / 23·26·33·2865%Game 6May 12PHX 86@DAL 11325·20·27·14 / 28·32·34·1954%Game 7May 15DAL 123@PHX 9027·30·35·31 / 17·10·23·4036%
DAL 114@PHX 12125·31·23·35 / 35·34·27·2563%Game 2May 4DAL 109@PHX 12928·32·23·26 / 32·26·31·4065%Game 3May 6PHX 94@DAL 10320·24·23·27 / 29·22·31·2154%Game 4May 8PHX 101@DAL 11125·31·22·23 / 37·31·19·2456%Game 5May 10DAL 80@PHX 11026·20·14·20 / 23·26·33·2865%Game 6May 12PHX 86@DAL 11325·20·27·14 / 28·32·34·1954%Game 7May 15DAL 123@PHX 9027·30·35·31 / 17·10·23·4036%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
6 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
56.1%
Brier over the series
0.2009
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.