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Hardwood
2021-22 season

First Round · 2021-22

Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks

4

final
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz

2

6 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 16Utah JazzUTAH 99@Dallas MavericksDAL 9320·25·28·26 / 23·20·22·2836%Game 2Apr 18Utah JazzUTAH 104@Dallas MavericksDAL 11024·31·26·23 / 24·24·29·3360%Game 3Apr 21Dallas MavericksDAL 126@Utah JazzUTAH 11827·41·29·29 / 20·31·40·2740%Game 4Apr 23Dallas MavericksDAL 99@Utah JazzUTAH 10023·19·39·18 / 24·30·24·2257%Game 5Apr 25Utah JazzUTAH 77@Dallas MavericksDAL 10218·18·19·22 / 24·28·29·2163%Game 6Apr 28Dallas MavericksDAL 98@Utah JazzUTAH 9615·26·36·21 / 21·32·19·2446%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

50.6%

Brier over the series

0.2547

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works