Conference Semifinals · 2021-22
6 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 1
GS 117@
MEM 11624·31·36·26 / 32·29·29·2639%Game 2May 3GS 101@MEM 10625·26·26·24 / 33·23·21·2963%Game 3May 7MEM 112@GS 14228·29·23·32 / 26·38·37·4158%Game 4May 9MEM 98@GS 10124·17·28·29 / 20·18·24·3964%Game 5May 11GS 95@MEM 13428·22·17·28 / 38·39·42·1558%Game 6May 13MEM 96@GS 11026·25·26·19 / 30·23·25·3257%
GS 117@MEM 11624·31·36·26 / 32·29·29·2639%Game 2May 3GS 101@MEM 10625·26·26·24 / 33·23·21·2963%Game 3May 7MEM 112@GS 14228·29·23·32 / 26·38·37·4158%Game 4May 9MEM 98@GS 10124·17·28·29 / 20·18·24·3964%Game 5May 11GS 95@MEM 13428·22·17·28 / 38·39·42·1558%Game 6May 13MEM 96@GS 11026·25·26·19 / 30·23·25·3257%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
56.5%
Brier over the series
0.1962
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.