Conference Finals · 2021-22
5 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 18
DAL 87@
GS 11218·27·24·18 / 28·26·34·2461%Game 2May 20DAL 117@GS 12632·40·13·32 / 25·33·25·4364%Game 3May 22GS 109@DAL 10025·23·30·31 / 22·25·21·3243%Game 4May 24GS 109@DAL 11924·23·23·39 / 28·34·37·2054%Game 5May 26DAL 110@GS 12023·29·32·26 / 28·41·25·2666%
DAL 87@GS 11218·27·24·18 / 28·26·34·2461%Game 2May 20DAL 117@GS 12632·40·13·32 / 25·33·25·4364%Game 3May 22GS 109@DAL 10025·23·30·31 / 22·25·21·3243%Game 4May 24GS 109@DAL 11924·23·23·39 / 28·34·37·2054%Game 5May 26DAL 110@GS 12023·29·32·26 / 28·41·25·2666%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
57.6%
Brier over the series
0.1865
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.