First Round · 2021-22
5 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
DEN 107@
GS 12327·20·23·37 / 26·32·32·3364%Game 2Apr 18DEN 106@GS 12626·25·30·25 / 25·32·44·2567%Game 3Apr 21GS 118@DEN 11334·35·18·31 / 32·27·30·2451%Game 4Apr 24GS 121@DEN 12621·31·37·32 / 26·37·35·2847%Game 5Apr 27DEN 98@GS 10225·23·30·20 / 30·18·22·3271%
DEN 107@GS 12327·20·23·37 / 26·32·32·3364%Game 2Apr 18DEN 106@GS 12626·25·30·25 / 25·32·44·2567%Game 3Apr 21GS 118@DEN 11334·35·18·31 / 32·27·30·2451%Game 4Apr 24GS 121@DEN 12621·31·37·32 / 26·37·35·2847%Game 5Apr 27DEN 98@GS 10225·23·30·20 / 30·18·22·3271%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
59.9%
Brier over the series
0.1690
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.