First Round · 2022-23
6 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
LAL 128@
MEM 11232·27·37·32 / 27·38·25·2238%Game 2Apr 19LAL 93@MEM 10319·25·27·22 / 30·29·24·2056%Game 3Apr 22MEM 101@LAL 1119·28·31·33 / 35·18·35·2362%Game 4Apr 24MEM 111@LAL 117OT23·29·31·21 / 29·25·27·2365%Game 5Apr 26LAL 99@MEM 11624·28·24·23 / 38·23·33·2255%Game 6Apr 28MEM 85@LAL 12520·22·25·18 / 31·28·41·2562%
LAL 128@MEM 11232·27·37·32 / 27·38·25·2238%Game 2Apr 19LAL 93@MEM 10319·25·27·22 / 30·29·24·2056%Game 3Apr 22MEM 101@LAL 1119·28·31·33 / 35·18·35·2362%Game 4Apr 24MEM 111@LAL 117OT23·29·31·21 / 29·25·27·2365%Game 5Apr 26LAL 99@MEM 11624·28·24·23 / 38·23·33·2255%Game 6Apr 28MEM 85@LAL 12520·22·25·18 / 31·28·41·2562%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
56.1%
Brier over the series
0.2010
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.