Conference Finals · 2022-23
4 games · Denver Nuggets advanced
Every game
Game 1May 16
LAL 126@
DEN 13225·29·38·34 / 37·35·34·2663%Game 2May 18LAL 103@DEN 10827·26·26·24 / 27·21·28·3263%Game 3May 20DEN 119@LAL 10832·26·26·35 / 20·35·27·2642%Game 4May 22DEN 113@LAL 11128·30·36·19 / 34·39·16·2245%
LAL 126@DEN 13225·29·38·34 / 37·35·34·2663%Game 2May 18LAL 103@DEN 10827·26·26·24 / 27·21·28·3263%Game 3May 20DEN 119@LAL 10832·26·26·35 / 20·35·27·2642%Game 4May 22DEN 113@LAL 11128·30·36·19 / 34·39·16·2245%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
53.0%
Brier over the series
0.2304
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.