Conference Semifinals · 2022-23
6 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 2
LAL 117@
GS 11229·36·31·21 / 31·33·24·2442%Game 2May 4LAL 100@GS 12733·23·24·20 / 26·41·43·1758%Game 3May 6GS 97@LAL 12730·18·20·29 / 23·36·27·4159%Game 4May 8GS 101@LAL 10421·31·32·17 / 22·27·28·2765%Game 5May 10LAL 106@GS 12128·31·23·24 / 32·38·23·2856%Game 6May 12GS 101@LAL 12226·20·31·24 / 31·25·35·3162%
LAL 117@GS 11229·36·31·21 / 31·33·24·2442%Game 2May 4LAL 100@GS 12733·23·24·20 / 26·41·43·1758%Game 3May 6GS 97@LAL 12730·18·20·29 / 23·36·27·4159%Game 4May 8GS 101@LAL 10421·31·32·17 / 22·27·28·2765%Game 5May 10LAL 106@GS 12128·31·23·24 / 32·38·23·2856%Game 6May 12GS 101@LAL 12226·20·31·24 / 31·25·35·3162%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
56.9%
Brier over the series
0.1912
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.