First Round · 2022-23
5 games · Denver Nuggets advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
MIN 80@
DEN 10923·21·14·22 / 26·29·32·2264%Game 2Apr 19MIN 113@DEN 12222·27·40·24 / 31·33·23·3565%Game 3Apr 21DEN 120@MIN 11128·33·33·26 / 28·27·33·2347%Game 4Apr 23DEN 108@MIN 114OT22·30·22·22 / 23·25·32·1651%Game 5Apr 25MIN 109@DEN 11229·18·30·32 / 22·26·29·3566%
MIN 80@DEN 10923·21·14·22 / 26·29·32·2264%Game 2Apr 19MIN 113@DEN 12222·27·40·24 / 31·33·23·3565%Game 3Apr 21DEN 120@MIN 11128·33·33·26 / 28·27·33·2347%Game 4Apr 23DEN 108@MIN 114OT22·30·22·22 / 23·25·32·1651%Game 5Apr 25MIN 109@DEN 11229·18·30·32 / 22·26·29·3566%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
58.8%
Brier over the series
0.1760
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.