BOS v ATL · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2022-23

4

final

2

6 games · Boston Celtics advanced

Every game

BOS 11219·25·31·24 / 29·45·20·1878%Game 2Apr 18

BOS 11925·24·32·25 / 28·33·29·2979%Game 3Apr 21

ATL 13037·30·26·29 / 33·41·26·3040%Game 4Apr 23

ATL 12135·30·27·37 / 25·28·34·3456%Game 5Apr 25

BOS 11730·28·24·37 / 27·39·26·2523%Game 6Apr 27

ATL 12035·33·30·30 / 34·33·33·2055%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

55.2%

Brier over the series

0.2396

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.