DEN v PHX · Conference Semifinals · Hardwood

Conference Semifinals · 2022-23

4

final

2

6 games · Denver Nuggets advanced

Every game

DEN 12532·19·30·26 / 31·37·26·3157%Game 2May 1

DEN 9721·21·31·14 / 18·22·30·2761%Game 3May 5

PHX 12131·21·36·26 / 29·38·23·3157%Game 4May 7

PHX 12934·27·31·32 / 32·31·35·3158%Game 5May 9

DEN 11824·25·25·28 / 35·17·39·2761%Game 6May 11

PHX 10044·37·22·22 / 26·25·25·2443%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

56.2%

Brier over the series

0.1955

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.