First Round · 2022-23
7 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 15
GS 123@
SAC 12629·32·29·33 / 29·26·36·3552%Game 2Apr 17GS 106@SAC 11423·29·23·31 / 17·41·25·3154%Game 3Apr 20SAC 97@GS 11420·21·31·25 / 29·24·31·3065%Game 4Apr 23SAC 125@GS 12632·37·23·33 / 31·34·37·2468%Game 5Apr 26GS 123@SAC 11633·27·39·24 / 36·20·34·2649%Game 6Apr 28SAC 118@GS 9923·35·32·28 / 25·26·29·1929%Game 7Apr 30GS 120@SAC 10030·26·35·29 / 31·27·23·1945%
GS 123@SAC 12629·32·29·33 / 29·26·36·3552%Game 2Apr 17GS 106@SAC 11423·29·23·31 / 17·41·25·3154%Game 3Apr 20SAC 97@GS 11420·21·31·25 / 29·24·31·3065%Game 4Apr 23SAC 125@GS 12632·37·23·33 / 31·34·37·2468%Game 5Apr 26GS 123@SAC 11633·27·39·24 / 36·20·34·2649%Game 6Apr 28SAC 118@GS 9923·35·32·28 / 25·26·29·1929%Game 7Apr 30GS 120@SAC 10030·26·35·29 / 31·27·23·1945%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
51.7%
Brier over the series
0.2479
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.