First Round · 2006-07
4 games · Chicago Bulls advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 21
MIA 91@
CHI 9628·18·16·29 / 27·22·23·2478%Game 2Apr 24MIA 89@CHI 10721·31·19·18 / 31·24·30·2278%Game 3Apr 27CHI 104@MIA 9629·16·27·32 / 23·29·24·2053%Game 4Apr 29CHI 92@MIA 7923·21·24·24 / 28·20·16·1555%
MIA 91@CHI 9628·18·16·29 / 27·22·23·2478%Game 2Apr 24MIA 89@CHI 10721·31·19·18 / 31·24·30·2278%Game 3Apr 27CHI 104@MIA 9629·16·27·32 / 23·29·24·2053%Game 4Apr 29CHI 92@MIA 7923·21·24·24 / 28·20·16·1555%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
65.8%
Brier over the series
0.1320
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.