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Hardwood
2008-09 season

First Round · 2008-09

Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks

4

final
Miami Heat
Miami Heat

3

7 games · Atlanta Hawks advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 19Miami HeatMIA 64@Atlanta HawksATL 9021·18·18·7 / 24·35·17·1469%Game 2Apr 22Miami HeatMIA 108@Atlanta HawksATL 9324·30·29·25 / 18·23·31·2126%Game 3Apr 25Atlanta HawksATL 78@Miami HeatMIA 10712·17·32·17 / 22·28·25·3264%Game 4Apr 27Atlanta HawksATL 81@Miami HeatMIA 7124·22·17·18 / 17·25·13·1631%Game 5Apr 29Miami HeatMIA 91@Atlanta HawksATL 10620·20·30·21 / 24·39·22·2166%Game 6May 1Atlanta HawksATL 72@Miami HeatMIA 9818·24·14·16 / 32·19·27·2060%Game 7May 3Miami HeatMIA 78@Atlanta HawksATL 9118·18·16·26 / 20·29·19·2362%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

54.2%

Brier over the series

0.2370

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works