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Hardwood
2009-10 season

First Round · 2009-10

Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers

4

final
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder

2

6 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 18Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 79@Los Angeles LakersLAL 8713·26·17·23 / 27·20·17·2364%Game 2Apr 20Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 92@Los Angeles LakersLAL 9518·29·22·23 / 26·19·28·2266%Game 3Apr 22Los Angeles LakersLAL 96@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 10127·23·25·21 / 22·21·31·2764%Game 4Apr 24Los Angeles LakersLAL 89@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 11017·25·22·25 / 29·26·31·2464%Game 5Apr 27Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 87@Los Angeles LakersLAL 11116·18·26·27 / 31·24·33·2362%Game 6Apr 30Los Angeles LakersLAL 95@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 9426·27·23·19 / 27·20·26·2136%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

59.4%

Brier over the series

0.1763

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works