First Round · 2009-10
5 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 17
MIA 76@
BOS 8529·15·22·10 / 28·13·23·2157%Game 2Apr 20MIA 77@BOS 10623·10·26·18 / 23·26·36·2161%Game 3Apr 23BOS 100@MIA 9827·21·32·20 / 29·20·23·2635%Game 4Apr 25BOS 92@MIA 10118·25·34·15 / 31·18·22·3063%Game 5Apr 27MIA 86@BOS 9621·17·27·21 / 29·19·23·2566%
MIA 76@BOS 8529·15·22·10 / 28·13·23·2157%Game 2Apr 20MIA 77@BOS 10623·10·26·18 / 23·26·36·2161%Game 3Apr 23BOS 100@MIA 9827·21·32·20 / 29·20·23·2635%Game 4Apr 25BOS 92@MIA 10118·25·34·15 / 31·18·22·3063%Game 5Apr 27MIA 86@BOS 9621·17·27·21 / 29·19·23·2566%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
56.5%
Brier over the series
0.2020
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.