Conference Semifinals · 2010-11
5 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1May 1
BOS 90@
MIA 9914·22·26·28 / 20·31·25·2372%Game 2May 3BOS 91@MIA 10226·16·25·24 / 27·20·25·3074%Game 3May 7MIA 81@BOS 9721·25·15·20 / 27·17·28·2554%Game 4May 9MIA 98@BOS 90OT28·22·19·17 / 31·22·20·1342%Game 5May 11BOS 87@MIA 9724·25·24·14 / 16·31·24·2673%
BOS 90@MIA 9914·22·26·28 / 20·31·25·2372%Game 2May 3BOS 91@MIA 10226·16·25·24 / 27·20·25·3074%Game 3May 7MIA 81@BOS 9721·25·15·20 / 27·17·28·2554%Game 4May 9MIA 98@BOS 90OT28·22·19·17 / 31·22·20·1342%Game 5May 11BOS 87@MIA 9724·25·24·14 / 16·31·24·2673%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
63.1%
Brier over the series
0.1532
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.