First Round · 2010-11
5 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
PHI 89@
MIA 9731·18·20·20 / 19·35·26·1781%Game 2Apr 18PHI 73@MIA 9413·18·21·21 / 19·30·26·1982%Game 3Apr 21MIA 100@PHI 9421·29·23·27 / 29·23·23·1957%Game 4Apr 24MIA 82@PHI 8616·31·19·16 / 28·18·18·2242%Game 5Apr 27PHI 91@MIA 9723·19·25·24 / 27·18·27·2582%
PHI 89@MIA 9731·18·20·20 / 19·35·26·1781%Game 2Apr 18PHI 73@MIA 9413·18·21·21 / 19·30·26·1982%Game 3Apr 21MIA 100@PHI 9421·29·23·27 / 29·23·23·1957%Game 4Apr 24MIA 82@PHI 8616·31·19·16 / 28·18·18·2242%Game 5Apr 27PHI 91@MIA 9723·19·25·24 / 27·18·27·2582%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
68.7%
Brier over the series
0.1259
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.