Conference Finals · 2010-11
5 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1May 15
MIA 82@
CHI 10323·25·15·19 / 20·28·24·3165%Game 2May 18MIA 85@CHI 7519·29·23·14 / 26·20·19·1031%Game 3May 22CHI 85@MIA 9615·25·25·20 / 18·25·25·2864%Game 4May 24CHI 93@MIA 101OT19·27·22·17 / 16·28·19·2266%Game 5May 26MIA 83@CHI 8021·17·19·26 / 25·20·17·1839%
MIA 82@CHI 10323·25·15·19 / 20·28·24·3165%Game 2May 18MIA 85@CHI 7519·29·23·14 / 26·20·19·1031%Game 3May 22CHI 85@MIA 9615·25·25·20 / 18·25·25·2864%Game 4May 24CHI 93@MIA 101OT19·27·22·17 / 16·28·19·2266%Game 5May 26MIA 83@CHI 8021·17·19·26 / 25·20·17·1839%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
52.9%
Brier over the series
0.2442
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.