NBA Finals · 2010-11
6 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced
Every game
Game 1May 31
DAL 84@
MIA 9217·27·17·23 / 16·27·22·2766%Game 2Jun 2DAL 95@MIA 9328·23·20·24 / 28·23·24·1833%Game 3Jun 5MIA 88@DAL 8629·18·20·21 / 22·20·22·2234%Game 4Jun 7MIA 83@DAL 8621·26·22·14 / 21·24·20·2164%Game 5Jun 9MIA 103@DAL 11231·26·22·24 / 30·30·24·2865%Game 6Jun 12DAL 105@MIA 9532·21·28·24 / 27·24·21·2337%
DAL 84@MIA 9217·27·17·23 / 16·27·22·2766%Game 2Jun 2DAL 95@MIA 9328·23·20·24 / 28·23·24·1833%Game 3Jun 5MIA 88@DAL 8629·18·20·21 / 22·20·22·2234%Game 4Jun 7MIA 83@DAL 8621·26·22·14 / 21·24·20·2164%Game 5Jun 9MIA 103@DAL 11231·26·22·24 / 30·30·24·2865%Game 6Jun 12DAL 105@MIA 9532·21·28·24 / 27·24·21·2337%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
49.7%
Brier over the series
0.2760
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.