Conference Semifinals · 2010-11
7 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1May 1
MEM 114@
OKC 10128·29·27·30 / 24·23·24·3025%Game 2May 3MEM 102@OKC 11117·27·24·34 / 28·26·22·3569%Game 3May 7OKC 93@MEM 101OT20·31·25·10 / 22·21·20·2361%Game 4May 9OKC 133@MEM 1233OT16·33·22·25 / 28·25·19·2437%Game 5May 11MEM 72@OKC 9917·18·17·20 / 17·29·25·2871%Game 6May 13OKC 83@MEM 9521·33·14·15 / 23·21·28·2355%Game 7May 15MEM 90@OKC 10517·17·24·32 / 21·21·30·3371%
MEM 114@OKC 10128·29·27·30 / 24·23·24·3025%Game 2May 3MEM 102@OKC 11117·27·24·34 / 28·26·22·3569%Game 3May 7OKC 93@MEM 101OT20·31·25·10 / 22·21·20·2361%Game 4May 9OKC 133@MEM 1233OT16·33·22·25 / 28·25·19·2437%Game 5May 11MEM 72@OKC 9917·18·17·20 / 17·29·25·2871%Game 6May 13OKC 83@MEM 9521·33·14·15 / 23·21·28·2355%Game 7May 15MEM 90@OKC 10517·17·24·32 / 21·21·30·3371%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
55.5%
Brier over the series
0.2263
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.