Conference Finals · 2010-11
5 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced
Every game
Game 1May 17
OKC 112@
DAL 12127·21·31·33 / 20·35·35·3173%Game 2May 19OKC 106@DAL 10026·33·18·29 / 31·26·19·2428%Game 3May 21DAL 93@OKC 8727·25·18·23 / 12·24·20·3137%Game 4May 23DAL 112@OKC 105OT22·32·23·24 / 31·28·22·2040%Game 5May 25OKC 96@DAL 10027·28·21·20 / 26·26·20·2872%
OKC 112@DAL 12127·21·31·33 / 20·35·35·3173%Game 2May 19OKC 106@DAL 10026·33·18·29 / 31·26·19·2428%Game 3May 21DAL 93@OKC 8727·25·18·23 / 12·24·20·3137%Game 4May 23DAL 112@OKC 105OT22·32·23·24 / 31·28·22·2040%Game 5May 25OKC 96@DAL 10027·28·21·20 / 26·26·20·2872%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
50.0%
Brier over the series
0.2851
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.