OKC v DEN · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2010-11

Oklahoma City Thunder

4

final

1

5 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced

Every game

OKC 10733·27·22·21 / 24·35·27·2170%Game 2Apr 20

OKC 10615·29·22·23 / 31·28·22·2572%Game 3Apr 23

DEN 9426·30·15·26 / 31·18·24·2140%Game 4Apr 25

DEN 10420·25·24·32 / 26·19·26·3358%Game 5Apr 27

OKC 10028·22·26·21 / 25·25·22·2873%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

62.5%

Brier over the series

0.1561

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.