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Hardwood
2012-13 season

First Round · 2012-13

Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder

4

final
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets

2

6 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 21Houston RocketsHOU 91@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 12019·28·19·25 / 26·34·29·3180%Game 2Apr 24Houston RocketsHOU 102@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 10528·27·17·30 / 29·28·21·2783%Game 3Apr 27Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 104@Houston RocketsHOU 10139·27·14·24 / 19·30·27·2555%Game 4Apr 29Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 103@Houston RocketsHOU 10524·36·24·19 / 29·24·38·1444%Game 5May 1Houston RocketsHOU 107@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 10030·20·37·20 / 26·17·32·2518%Game 6May 3Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 103@Houston RocketsHOU 9426·32·20·25 / 29·25·23·1751%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

55.2%

Brier over the series

0.2504

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works