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Hardwood
2012-13 season

Conference Finals · 2012-13

Miami Heat
Miami Heat

4

final
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

3

7 games · Miami Heat advanced

Every game

Game 1May 22Indiana PacersIND 102@Miami HeatMIA 103OT21·21·23·27 / 22·15·27·2885%Game 2May 24Indiana PacersIND 97@Miami HeatMIA 9328·25·23·21 / 22·25·27·1916%Game 3May 26Miami HeatMIA 114@Indiana PacersIND 9634·36·21·23 / 30·26·20·2055%Game 4May 28Miami HeatMIA 92@Indiana PacersIND 9922·25·23·22 / 26·22·29·2242%Game 5May 30Indiana PacersIND 79@Miami HeatMIA 9023·21·13·22 / 19·21·30·2080%Game 6Jun 1Miami HeatMIA 77@Indiana PacersIND 9123·17·15·22 / 21·18·29·2343%Game 7Jun 3Indiana PacersIND 76@Miami HeatMIA 9921·16·18·21 / 19·33·24·2377%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

56.7%

Brier over the series

0.2418

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works