First Round · 2012-13
4 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 21
MIL 87@
MIA 11024·21·20·22 / 26·26·28·3091%Game 2Apr 23MIL 86@MIA 9823·20·22·21 / 25·22·21·3092%Game 3Apr 25MIA 104@MIL 9121·27·30·26 / 30·20·18·2376%Game 4Apr 28MIA 88@MIL 7724·21·22·21 / 17·24·21·1576%
MIL 87@MIA 11024·21·20·22 / 26·26·28·3091%Game 2Apr 23MIL 86@MIA 9823·20·22·21 / 25·22·21·3092%Game 3Apr 25MIA 104@MIL 9121·27·30·26 / 30·20·18·2376%Game 4Apr 28MIA 88@MIL 7724·21·22·21 / 17·24·21·1576%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
83.8%
Brier over the series
0.0324
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.