NBA Finals · 2012-13
7 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 6
SA 92@
MIA 8823·26·20·23 / 24·28·20·1633%Game 2Jun 9SA 84@MIA 10322·23·20·19 / 22·28·25·2867%Game 3Jun 11MIA 77@SA 11320·24·19·14 / 24·26·28·3559%Game 4Jun 13MIA 109@SA 9329·20·32·28 / 26·23·27·1734%Game 5Jun 16MIA 104@SA 11419·33·23·29 / 32·29·26·2762%Game 6Jun 18SA 100@MIA 103OT25·25·25·20 / 27·17·21·3065%Game 7Jun 20SA 88@MIA 9516·28·27·17 / 18·28·26·2366%
SA 92@MIA 8823·26·20·23 / 24·28·20·1633%Game 2Jun 9SA 84@MIA 10322·23·20·19 / 22·28·25·2867%Game 3Jun 11MIA 77@SA 11320·24·19·14 / 24·26·28·3559%Game 4Jun 13MIA 109@SA 9329·20·32·28 / 26·23·27·1734%Game 5Jun 16MIA 104@SA 11419·33·23·29 / 32·29·26·2762%Game 6Jun 18SA 100@MIA 103OT25·25·25·20 / 27·17·21·3065%Game 7Jun 20SA 88@MIA 9516·28·27·17 / 18·28·26·2366%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
55.1%
Brier over the series
0.2212
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.