Conference Semifinals · 2012-13
5 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1May 6
CHI 93@
MIA 8621·16·21·35 / 15·22·25·2410%Game 2May 8CHI 78@MIA 11520·21·15·22 / 25·30·30·3086%Game 3May 10MIA 104@CHI 9425·27·18·34 / 25·25·20·2465%Game 4May 13MIA 88@CHI 6521·23·17·27 / 15·18·9·2366%Game 5May 15CHI 91@MIA 9421·32·24·14 / 30·17·22·2589%
CHI 93@MIA 8621·16·21·35 / 15·22·25·2410%Game 2May 8CHI 78@MIA 11520·21·15·22 / 25·30·30·3086%Game 3May 10MIA 104@CHI 9425·27·18·34 / 25·25·20·2465%Game 4May 13MIA 88@CHI 6521·23·17·27 / 15·18·9·2366%Game 5May 15CHI 91@MIA 9421·32·24·14 / 30·17·22·2589%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
63.1%
Brier over the series
0.2176
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.