Conference Semifinals · 2012-13
5 games · Memphis Grizzlies advanced
Every game
Game 1May 5
MEM 91@
OKC 9316·30·27·18 / 14·33·17·2970%Game 2May 7MEM 99@OKC 9323·31·15·30 / 21·30·23·1929%Game 3May 11OKC 81@MEM 8718·27·15·21 / 22·22·22·2162%Game 4May 13OKC 97@MEM 103OT29·27·20·18 / 18·30·28·1864%Game 5May 15MEM 88@OKC 8418·32·14·24 / 23·15·24·2235%
MEM 91@OKC 9316·30·27·18 / 14·33·17·2970%Game 2May 7MEM 99@OKC 9323·31·15·30 / 21·30·23·1929%Game 3May 11OKC 81@MEM 8718·27·15·21 / 22·22·22·2162%Game 4May 13OKC 97@MEM 103OT29·27·20·18 / 18·30·28·1864%Game 5May 15MEM 88@OKC 8418·32·14·24 / 23·15·24·2235%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
52.1%
Brier over the series
0.2572
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.