Conference Finals · 2013-14
6 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1May 18
MIA 96@
IND 10724·21·25·26 / 30·25·28·2453%Game 2May 20MIA 87@IND 8320·21·21·25 / 21·16·26·2042%Game 3May 24IND 87@MIA 9921·21·22·23 / 14·24·33·2870%Game 4May 26IND 90@MIA 10219·25·20·26 / 27·22·31·2272%Game 5May 28MIA 90@IND 9316·26·15·33 / 22·11·31·2952%Game 6May 30IND 92@MIA 11713·21·24·34 / 24·36·31·2671%
MIA 96@IND 10724·21·25·26 / 30·25·28·2453%Game 2May 20MIA 87@IND 8320·21·21·25 / 21·16·26·2042%Game 3May 24IND 87@MIA 9921·21·22·23 / 14·24·33·2870%Game 4May 26IND 90@MIA 10219·25·20·26 / 27·22·31·2272%Game 5May 28MIA 90@IND 9316·26·15·33 / 22·11·31·2952%Game 6May 30IND 92@MIA 11713·21·24·34 / 24·36·31·2671%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
59.9%
Brier over the series
0.1739
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.