Conference Semifinals · 2013-14
5 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1May 6
BKN 86@
MIA 10720·23·23·20 / 22·24·33·2875%Game 2May 8BKN 82@MIA 9421·25·21·15 / 15·30·24·2575%Game 3May 10MIA 90@BKN 10430·19·14·27 / 29·22·26·2748%Game 4May 12MIA 102@BKN 9627·29·23·23 / 22·27·27·2046%Game 5May 14BKN 94@MIA 9622·27·26·19 / 23·19·24·3074%
BKN 86@MIA 10720·23·23·20 / 22·24·33·2875%Game 2May 8BKN 82@MIA 9421·25·21·15 / 15·30·24·2575%Game 3May 10MIA 90@BKN 10430·19·14·27 / 29·22·26·2748%Game 4May 12MIA 102@BKN 9627·29·23·23 / 22·27·27·2046%Game 5May 14BKN 94@MIA 9622·27·26·19 / 23·19·24·3074%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
63.7%
Brier over the series
0.1501
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.