NBA Finals · 2013-14
5 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 5
MIA 95@
SA 11020·29·29·17 / 26·28·20·3676%Game 2Jun 8MIA 98@SA 9619·24·34·21 / 26·17·35·1822%Game 3Jun 10SA 111@MIA 9241·30·15·25 / 25·25·25·1747%Game 4Jun 12SA 107@MIA 8626·29·26·26 / 17·19·21·2952%Game 5Jun 15MIA 87@SA 10429·11·18·29 / 22·25·30·2781%
MIA 95@SA 11020·29·29·17 / 26·28·20·3676%Game 2Jun 8MIA 98@SA 9619·24·34·21 / 26·17·35·1822%Game 3Jun 10SA 111@MIA 9241·30·15·25 / 25·25·25·1747%Game 4Jun 12SA 107@MIA 8626·29·26·26 / 17·19·21·2952%Game 5Jun 15MIA 87@SA 10429·11·18·29 / 22·25·30·2781%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
55.7%
Brier over the series
0.2419
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.