First Round · 2013-14
4 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
CHA 88@
MIA 9923·19·23·23 / 19·30·23·2765%Game 2Apr 23CHA 97@MIA 10119·28·25·25 / 29·28·22·2266%Game 3Apr 26MIA 98@CHA 8523·35·28·12 / 27·19·19·2040%Game 4Apr 28MIA 109@CHA 9826·26·32·25 / 27·27·17·2744%
CHA 88@MIA 9923·19·23·23 / 19·30·23·2765%Game 2Apr 23CHA 97@MIA 10119·28·25·25 / 29·28·22·2266%Game 3Apr 26MIA 98@CHA 8523·35·28·12 / 27·19·19·2040%Game 4Apr 28MIA 109@CHA 9826·26·32·25 / 27·27·17·2744%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
53.7%
Brier over the series
0.2280
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.