Conference Finals · 2013-14
6 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 19
OKC 105@
SA 12227·32·23·23 / 30·37·22·3371%Game 2May 21OKC 77@SA 11226·18·18·15 / 24·34·33·2173%Game 3May 25SA 97@OKC 10629·24·23·21 / 28·29·26·2354%Game 4May 27SA 92@OKC 10520·23·24·25 / 26·32·25·2256%Game 5May 29OKC 89@SA 11732·23·19·15 / 32·33·29·2371%Game 6May 31SA 112@OKC 107OT20·22·37·22 / 23·26·20·3245%
OKC 105@SA 12227·32·23·23 / 30·37·22·3371%Game 2May 21OKC 77@SA 11226·18·18·15 / 24·34·33·2173%Game 3May 25SA 97@OKC 10629·24·23·21 / 28·29·26·2354%Game 4May 27SA 92@OKC 10520·23·24·25 / 26·32·25·2256%Game 5May 29OKC 89@SA 11732·23·19·15 / 32·33·29·2371%Game 6May 31SA 112@OKC 107OT20·22·37·22 / 23·26·20·3245%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
61.6%
Brier over the series
0.1587
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.