First Round · 2013-14
7 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
MEM 86@
OKC 10016·18·31·21 / 29·27·13·3168%Game 2Apr 21MEM 111@OKC 105OT24·22·22·31 / 16·27·22·3429%Game 3Apr 24OKC 95@MEM 98OT18·18·25·24 / 24·20·27·1462%Game 4Apr 26OKC 92@MEM 89OT15·27·22·16 / 18·17·17·2836%Game 5Apr 29MEM 100@OKC 99OT30·25·21·14 / 25·18·27·2033%Game 6May 1OKC 104@MEM 8425·31·26·22 / 17·24·20·2337%Game 7May 3MEM 109@OKC 12036·22·23·28 / 27·34·33·2670%
MEM 86@OKC 10016·18·31·21 / 29·27·13·3168%Game 2Apr 21MEM 111@OKC 105OT24·22·22·31 / 16·27·22·3429%Game 3Apr 24OKC 95@MEM 98OT18·18·25·24 / 24·20·27·1462%Game 4Apr 26OKC 92@MEM 89OT15·27·22·16 / 18·17·17·2836%Game 5Apr 29MEM 100@OKC 99OT30·25·21·14 / 25·18·27·2033%Game 6May 1OKC 104@MEM 8425·31·26·22 / 17·24·20·2337%Game 7May 3MEM 109@OKC 12036·22·23·28 / 27·34·33·2670%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
47.9%
Brier over the series
0.2989
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.