Conference Semifinals · 2015-16
7 games · Toronto Raptors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 3
MIA 102@
TOR 96OT18·23·27·22 / 18·25·20·2738%Game 2May 5MIA 92@TOR 96OT19·22·24·21 / 29·19·15·2360%Game 3May 7TOR 95@MIA 9123·26·19·27 / 19·21·28·2336%Game 4May 9TOR 87@MIA 94OT21·14·27·21 / 25·19·16·2363%Game 5May 11MIA 91@TOR 9918·27·17·29 / 28·27·20·2461%Game 6May 13TOR 91@MIA 10320·24·28·19 / 21·32·29·2161%Game 7May 15MIA 89@TOR 11624·23·31·11 / 25·28·33·3060%
MIA 102@TOR 96OT18·23·27·22 / 18·25·20·2738%Game 2May 5MIA 92@TOR 96OT19·22·24·21 / 29·19·15·2360%Game 3May 7TOR 95@MIA 9123·26·19·27 / 19·21·28·2336%Game 4May 9TOR 87@MIA 94OT21·14·27·21 / 25·19·16·2363%Game 5May 11MIA 91@TOR 9918·27·17·29 / 28·27·20·2461%Game 6May 13TOR 91@MIA 10320·24·28·19 / 21·32·29·2161%Game 7May 15MIA 89@TOR 11624·23·31·11 / 25·28·33·3060%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
53.9%
Brier over the series
0.2241
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.