MIA v CHA · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2015-16

4

final

Charlotte Hornets

3

7 games · Miami Heat advanced

Every game

MIA 12322·28·24·17 / 41·26·30·2661%Game 2Apr 20

MIA 11529·31·18·25 / 29·43·19·2468%Game 3Apr 23

CHA 9628·16·14·22 / 29·20·26·2156%Game 4Apr 25

CHA 8926·13·22·24 / 19·29·21·2060%Game 5Apr 27

MIA 8828·21·16·25 / 25·22·24·1735%Game 6Apr 29

CHA 9027·32·16·22 / 24·26·20·2037%Game 7May 1

MIA 10618·24·11·20 / 29·25·29·2365%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

54.6%

Brier over the series

0.2215

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.