Conference Semifinals · 2015-16
6 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 30
OKC 92@
SA 12420·20·26·26 / 43·30·32·1971%Game 2May 2OKC 98@SA 9729·27·21·21 / 21·32·23·2125%Game 3May 6SA 100@OKC 9627·20·25·28 / 20·22·27·2744%Game 4May 8SA 97@OKC 11127·26·28·16 / 17·28·32·3454%Game 5May 10OKC 95@SA 9122·21·26·26 / 16·32·24·1928%Game 6May 12SA 99@OKC 11319·12·34·34 / 25·30·36·2260%
OKC 92@SA 12420·20·26·26 / 43·30·32·1971%Game 2May 2OKC 98@SA 9729·27·21·21 / 21·32·23·2125%Game 3May 6SA 100@OKC 9627·20·25·28 / 20·22·27·2744%Game 4May 8SA 97@OKC 11127·26·28·16 / 17·28·32·3454%Game 5May 10OKC 95@SA 9122·21·26·26 / 16·32·24·1928%Game 6May 12SA 99@OKC 11319·12·34·34 / 25·30·36·2260%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
46.9%
Brier over the series
0.3103
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.