First Round · 2015-16
5 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
DAL 70@
OKC 10811·22·18·19 / 26·33·34·1580%Game 2Apr 18DAL 85@OKC 8424·21·14·26 / 20·23·19·2218%Game 3Apr 21OKC 131@DAL 10227·31·39·34 / 21·27·30·2457%Game 4Apr 23OKC 119@DAL 10833·24·32·30 / 18·30·31·2962%Game 5Apr 25DAL 104@OKC 11824·37·22·21 / 35·33·25·2585%
DAL 70@OKC 10811·22·18·19 / 26·33·34·1580%Game 2Apr 18DAL 85@OKC 8424·21·14·26 / 20·23·19·2218%Game 3Apr 21OKC 131@DAL 10227·31·39·34 / 21·27·30·2457%Game 4Apr 23OKC 119@DAL 10833·24·32·30 / 18·30·31·2962%Game 5Apr 25DAL 104@OKC 11824·37·22·21 / 35·33·25·2585%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
60.4%
Brier over the series
0.2123
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.