Conference Finals · 2015-16
7 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 16
OKC 108@
GS 10221·26·38·23 / 27·33·28·1425%Game 2May 18OKC 91@GS 11820·29·19·23 / 27·30·31·3071%Game 3May 22GS 105@OKC 13328·19·33·25 / 34·38·45·1656%Game 4May 24GS 94@OKC 11826·27·29·12 / 30·42·22·2462%Game 5May 26OKC 111@GS 12021·29·27·34 / 25·33·23·3966%Game 6May 28GS 108@OKC 10120·28·27·33 / 23·30·30·1834%Game 7May 30OKC 88@GS 9624·24·12·28 / 19·23·29·2569%
OKC 108@GS 10221·26·38·23 / 27·33·28·1425%Game 2May 18OKC 91@GS 11820·29·19·23 / 27·30·31·3071%Game 3May 22GS 105@OKC 13328·19·33·25 / 34·38·45·1656%Game 4May 24GS 94@OKC 11826·27·29·12 / 30·42·22·2462%Game 5May 26OKC 111@GS 12021·29·27·34 / 25·33·23·3966%Game 6May 28GS 108@OKC 10120·28·27·33 / 23·30·30·1834%Game 7May 30OKC 88@GS 9624·24·12·28 / 19·23·29·2569%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
54.7%
Brier over the series
0.2332
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.