First Round · 2016-17
5 games · Houston Rockets advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
OKC 87@
HOU 11829·25·20·13 / 27·32·30·2970%Game 2Apr 19OKC 111@HOU 11535·33·21·22 / 26·36·24·2974%Game 3Apr 21HOU 113@OKC 11525·33·25·30 / 34·31·28·2252%Game 4Apr 23HOU 113@OKC 10922·32·19·40 / 26·32·19·3246%Game 5Apr 25OKC 99@HOU 10522·22·33·22 / 16·35·21·3375%
OKC 87@HOU 11829·25·20·13 / 27·32·30·2970%Game 2Apr 19OKC 111@HOU 11535·33·21·22 / 26·36·24·2974%Game 3Apr 21HOU 113@OKC 11525·33·25·30 / 34·31·28·2252%Game 4Apr 23HOU 113@OKC 10922·32·19·40 / 26·32·19·3246%Game 5Apr 25OKC 99@HOU 10522·22·33·22 / 16·35·21·3375%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
63.7%
Brier over the series
0.1463
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.