First Round · 2017-18
5 games · Philadelphia 76ers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 14
MIA 103@
PHI 13035·25·18·25 / 29·27·34·4080%Game 2Apr 16MIA 113@PHI 10322·34·30·27 / 29·13·33·2818%Game 3Apr 19PHI 128@MIA 10837·26·33·32 / 33·31·30·1455%Game 4Apr 21PHI 106@MIA 10226·30·23·27 / 26·35·22·1958%Game 5Apr 24MIA 91@PHI 10421·25·20·25 / 23·23·34·2482%
MIA 103@PHI 13035·25·18·25 / 29·27·34·4080%Game 2Apr 16MIA 113@PHI 10322·34·30·27 / 29·13·33·2818%Game 3Apr 19PHI 128@MIA 10837·26·33·32 / 33·31·30·1455%Game 4Apr 21PHI 106@MIA 10226·30·23·27 / 26·35·22·1958%Game 5Apr 24MIA 91@PHI 10421·25·20·25 / 23·23·34·2482%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
58.6%
Brier over the series
0.2245
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.