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Hardwood
2018-19 season

First Round · 2018-19

Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers

4

final
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder

1

5 games · Portland Trail Blazers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 14Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 99@Portland Trail BlazersPOR 10425·23·21·30 / 39·15·22·2872%Game 2Apr 16Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 94@Portland Trail BlazersPOR 11431·23·21·19 / 26·28·37·2374%Game 3Apr 19Portland Trail BlazersPOR 108@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 12022·17·43·26 / 21·28·37·3451%Game 4Apr 21Portland Trail BlazersPOR 111@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 9826·24·29·32 / 24·22·22·3045%Game 5Apr 23Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 115@Portland Trail BlazersPOR 11837·23·30·25 / 29·32·27·3075%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

63.5%

Brier over the series

0.1496

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works