First Round · 2019-20
7 games · Houston Rockets advanced
Every game
Game 1Aug 18
OKC 108@
HOU 12320·32·31·25 / 28·40·36·1956%Game 2Aug 20OKC 98@HOU 11130·29·19·20 / 35·18·24·3460%Game 3Aug 22HOU 107@OKC 119OT29·34·19·22 / 23·34·21·2661%Game 4Aug 24HOU 114@OKC 11737·23·33·21 / 35·25·32·2563%Game 5Aug 29OKC 80@HOU 11414·31·18·17 / 24·24·37·2959%Game 6Aug 31HOU 100@OKC 10425·26·24·25 / 24·24·29·2757%Game 7Sep 2OKC 102@HOU 10430·29·21·22 / 29·32·24·1964%
OKC 108@HOU 12320·32·31·25 / 28·40·36·1956%Game 2Aug 20OKC 98@HOU 11130·29·19·20 / 35·18·24·3460%Game 3Aug 22HOU 107@OKC 119OT29·34·19·22 / 23·34·21·2661%Game 4Aug 24HOU 114@OKC 11737·23·33·21 / 35·25·32·2563%Game 5Aug 29OKC 80@HOU 11414·31·18·17 / 24·24·37·2959%Game 6Aug 31HOU 100@OKC 10425·26·24·25 / 24·24·29·2757%Game 7Sep 2OKC 102@HOU 10430·29·21·22 / 29·32·24·1964%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
7 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
60.0%
Brier over the series
0.1604
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.