IND v MIA · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2019-20

0

final

4

4 games · Miami Heat advanced

Every game

IND 10127·29·25·32 / 33·19·28·2135%Game 2Aug 20

IND 10022·29·37·21 / 24·22·31·2339%Game 3Aug 22

MIA 12427·29·34·25 / 34·40·20·3067%Game 4Aug 24

MIA 9922·20·20·25 / 21·27·22·2968%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

2 of 4

Mean probability on the winner

52.3%

Brier over the series

0.2510

A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.